Waverly City Schools — OH

1. Snapshot

Rural-Fringe district anchored on Waverly (Pike County seat, southern Ohio, ~60 miles south of Columbus along U.S. 23). 1,607 students across 4 schools (Waverly Primary, ES, JHS, HS). SAIPE poverty 23.3% — the highest poverty rate in this seven-district batch by a wide margin. Demographics 94% White / 3% Black / 1% Hispanic / 1% Multiracial / 1% Asian. Per-pupil expenditure $14,168 (FY2020). Student:teacher ratio 15.2:1.

This is the rural-Appalachian-fringe profile in the batch — Pike County is one of Ohio’s lower-income counties (Piketon Atomic Plant legacy, persistent economic distress). A 0.75% earned-income tax in this kind of community has the lowest dollar bite of any ask in the batch ($420/year on the median Waverly household at $56K HHI) — but the political ceiling is the lowest too. Per the Facebook coverage: “soundly defeated.” The 60.74% No is a smaller margin than Wadsworth’s 69.62%, but at this poverty level, a 40% Yes ceiling is roughly where the math tops out — the available pro-school vote came out, and it wasn’t enough.

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

This is the lowest-income, lowest-home-value, lowest-college-attainment community in the seven-district batch. HHI $56K is 25% below the national median; home value $158K is less than half the national; 17.8% bachelors-plus is the lowest in this batch. The 1.1% non-English-household share + 94% White demographic = essentially monolingual, demographically homogeneous; comms reach is not the problem here — the available pro-school vote is the problem.

Pike County’s median income is structurally constrained — Appalachian-fringe rural Ohio has not seen the post-2018 wage compression elsewhere in the state. Asking any additional tax in this community is hard; asking it in a year where Ohio voters statewide are signaling property-tax relief makes the political ceiling rough.

The structural read: Waverly’s 39.26% Yes is roughly equivalent to the demographic ceiling for additional taxes in a 23%-SAIPE-poverty, 18%-bachelors-plus community. The campaign likely got the vote it was going to get; the structural fix is on the type of ask, not on the messaging.

3. Peer comparison

Top peers via MCP (default weights + plantOps emphasis). FMX-customer status resolved against the local benchmarking server.

Confirmed FMX customers in top 15 (2): Forest Hills School District (PA — Western PA Appalachian fringe, structurally similar), Eaton Community City (OH — Preble County, west-central Ohio rural).

4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Waverly’s data position is mid-pack on plant ops, climate-distressed, counselor-thin — and the campaign clearly didn’t put the climate-distress story in a usable frame:

• Plant operations spending: $1,094.92 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — Waverly spends 17.3% below the national median on facilities upkeep. Less under-spent than the four NE Ohio districts in this batch — Waverly is actually closer to the national bar than Tallmadge, Twinsburg, Troy. Important for messaging: “We’re closer to the national average on facilities spend than most Ohio peers. The income tax isn’t to fund deferred maintenance — it’s to keep operations from cutting further into staffing.”
• Per-pupil instruction: $8,067 — solid.
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $401,000 — minimal recent capital activity.
• Chronic absenteeism: 39.4% — the highest in the seven-district batch, by a wide margin. Nearly 4 in 10 Waverly students are chronically absent. This is a Pike-County-poverty-driven number, but it’s also the number the campaign should have led with: every classroom-investment dollar the levy funded would have a measurable target (the 39% absenteeism rate) the community could track.
• Suspension rate 19.1%, total expulsions: 6 across 4 schools. Climate metrics are worst-in-batch.
• Counselor ratio district-wide: 321:1 — peer-typical; counseling is adequately staffed on paper but stretched thin against the climate load.
• 4 of 4 schools have a nurse. Total nurse FTE: 4.0. Strong relative to the cohort.
• Security FTE: 4.0 across 4 schools — highest in the batch relative to district size.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Pulled live from fmxFacilities for each confirmed FMX-customer peer. These are the actual operational profiles Waverly is being measured against — and what the next campaign can cite directly.

Forest Hills SD (PA) at 97.7% resolution rate is a strong peer proof point — Western Pennsylvania Appalachian-fringe district structurally comparable to Waverly’s profile. Eaton Community City (OH) at 91.3% resolution + 7.3% HVAC burden is the closer-to-home comparable — Preble County, west-central Ohio rural, on FMX with the data to show it. Both peers ≥95% similarity.

5. Bond/levy history (web search)

Per available coverage:

• May 5, 2026: 0.75% income tax 5-year additional, failed 39.26% Yes — “soundly defeated” per local news coverage
• No prior failed-attempt history surfaces in the available coverage — the AE should validate whether Waverly has run a recent income-tax ask before, or whether May 2026 was the district’s first attempt at the structure.

6. What voters / opposition actually said

Coverage is thin — Facebook posts are the primary surfaced source. The thinness of coverage is itself the diagnostic. Pike County local news is sparse; the lack of post-vote coverage suggests there was little community debate in either direction. Waverly’s failure resembles Troy’s vacuum failure more than Wadsworth’s verdict-failure — but at a much lower demographic ceiling (Pike County’s available pro-school vote tops out around 40%; Wadsworth’s tops out higher, and they hit 30%).

No organized opposition committee surfaces in coverage. The May 5 broader Ohio statewide signal (Ideastream: only 24 of 66 levies passed) is the regional context; Waverly is one data point in that pattern, against a demographic profile structurally hostile to additional taxes.

7. What we could have told them

1. “We spend $1,095 per student on plant operations. The national median is $1,324. We’re 17% below national — but we’re actually closer to the national bar than most NE Ohio districts on the same ballot. The income tax doesn’t fund deferred maintenance; it funds operating shortfall against rising costs.” Frugality-first framing, plus a regional comparison that distinguishes Waverly from the NE Ohio cluster.
2. “39% chronic absenteeism, district-wide. Nearly 4 in 10 Waverly students are chronically absent — the highest rate in the seven-district Ohio May-5 cohort, by a wide margin. The next levy needs to be tied to a specific reduction in absenteeism — counseling, transportation, climate — voters can name and track. The current ask was framed as ‘current expenses,’ which gave voters nothing to verify.”
3. “In a community where median household income is $56K and 18% have bachelor’s degrees, a ‘current expenses’ frame won’t move the demographic ceiling. The next ask needs to be a named-purpose levy (safety, transportation, mental-health staffing) where voters can connect their $420/year to a visible school output.”
4. “Forest Hills SD (PA) — Western Pennsylvania Appalachian fringe, structurally comparable, same enrollment band — runs at 97.7% work-order resolution on FMX. Eaton Community City (OH, Preble County, 98 miles west) runs at 91.3%. The community didn’t have a peer dashboard to audit. The next campaign needs one.”
5. “Strategic: 40% Yes is roughly the demographic ceiling for additional tax in a 23%-poverty Pike County district. Re-running the same structure won’t clear the ceiling. Either (a) replace an existing property mill with the income tax (net-neutral substitution), or (b) attach the levy to a named, voter-trackable outcome (chronic absenteeism, building condition, counselor:student ratio). Generic operating-tax asks don’t work in this demographic.”

8. FMX outreach hook

Waverly has 2 confirmed FMX-customer peers in the top 15 set:

• Forest Hills SD (PA, 240 mi — Western PA Appalachian fringe, 95.1% similarity) (fhrangers.gofmx.com): 8 buildings; 97.7% work-order resolution; 2.8% HVAC burden; 4,785 work orders captured. Strongest peer proof point — same structural-rural-fringe profile as Waverly.
• Eaton Community City (OH, 98 mi — Preble County, 95.1% similarity) (eatoncommunityschools.gofmx.com): 15 buildings; 91.3% work-order resolution; 7.3% HVAC burden; 688 work orders captured. Closer same-state peer.

Opener for the call: “You lost 61-39 in a 23%-SAIPE-poverty Pike County district — that’s roughly the demographic ceiling for additional tax in this community profile, not a verdict on Waverly schools. The next ask needs structural change — named-purpose levy, sunsetting offset, or property-to-income substitution — backed by a peer dashboard voters can audit. Forest Hills SD (PA) runs at 97.7% work-order resolution on FMX today. Eaton Community City (Preble County) at 91.3%. We can have your facilities portfolio benchmarked against them inside 60 days — engagement window is 12-18 months for the next viable ask, not the post-mortem on this one.”

Lead with Supt. Aaron Hartley. The Waverly engagement framing is “the structural ask was wrong for this demographic; the next viable attempt is 12-18 months out, with structural restructuring + named-purpose framing + a peer dashboard.” Forest Hills SD is the strongest single peer proof point — Western PA Appalachian fringe is the closest structural analogue in the FMX customer base. Validate the named FMX peers above against the internal customer list before outbound — these were resolved via the local benchmarking server’s fmx_profiles join.