Painesville City Local — OH

1. Snapshot

Suburb-Large district in the city of Painesville (Lake County seat), 30 miles east of Cleveland on Lake Erie. 2,744 students across 6 schools plus a digital academy — a 7-building footprint serving one of Lake County’s most diverse small cities. SAIPE poverty 21.8% — the second-highest in this 7-district batch (only Northridge at 37.1% is higher) and well above the Ohio average. Demographics 59% Hispanic / 17% White / 14% Black / 9% Multiracial / 0.2% Asian — the highest Hispanic-majority share in this 7-district batch, and one of the highest in any Lake County district. Per-pupil expenditure $15,096 (FY2020). The state funds 59% of the district’s revenue ($30.2M state vs $12.6M local) — Painesville is heavily state-dependent relative to its tax base.

This is the highest-leverage district in the entire 42-district May 5 Ohio rejection cohort. A 10-vote margin out of 1,374 ballots cast = 0.36 percentage points from passage. A swing of six votes flips the outcome. Painesville is winnable on data alone: the next ballot attempt is the fastest engagement-to-passage path FMX can offer any prospect in this batch.

The narrative weight: the district had not asked voters for new operating money since 2012 (14 years). They asked once. They came within 10 votes. This is not a “voters rejected the district” story; this is an “operational data closes the last 10 votes” story.

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

Below-median income, 47% owner-occupied (the lowest in this 7-district batch — Painesville is majority-renter), home values at 38% of national median, college attainment half the U.S. average, and 24.8% non-English households — the second highest in this batch (only behind the WA-cohort high-water mark of Eastmont at 24.3%, identical band). This is a working-class, majority-Hispanic, majority-renter, modest-income community asking for an Earned Income Tax — which, structurally, protects the renter majority (renters don’t pay EIT pass-through the way they pay property-tax pass-through; EIT is paid by wage-earners who live in the district).

That structural logic apparently worked: Painesville is the only district in this 7-district batch where the EIT campaign came within 1 percentage point of passing. The renter-majority demographic should have been hostile to a property-tax bond — and it would have been. The EIT structure was the right structural choice. The campaign got within 10 votes. The last 10 votes require operational story, not structural redesign.

3. Peer comparison

Top peers via MCP (default weights + plant-ops emphasis). FMX-customer status resolved against opted-in local benchmarking server.

Confirmed FMX customers in top 15: 0. This is the second district in this 7-district batch (alongside Northwestern Local) with zero FMX-customer peers in the top-15. The peer cluster is dominated by Hispanic-majority, working-class, urban-fringe districts — Texas Hispanic-belt (Lake Worth, San Elizario, Ferris, Kennedale), Chicago-suburb Hispanic-belt (Berwyn South, Cook County 130, Plano), and California Hispanic-majority (Duarte, Lowell Joint). None currently on FMX. Painesville’s demographic peer cluster is one of the highest-growth, highest-potential underserved segments in the K-12 facilities-software market. If FMX wants a foothold in the Hispanic-majority small-suburban-city K-12 segment, Painesville is the entry point.

4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Painesville’s data position is genuinely strong for a school-tax ask in a way the campaign apparently did not fully exploit:

• Plant operations spending: $1,411.76 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 6.6% above the national median. Painesville is the ONLY district in this 7-district batch that spends ABOVE national median on plant operations. This is a defensible-the-other-way story: “We’re spending what facilities actually cost; our buildings reflect that investment; the EIT keeps that operational margin from collapsing.”
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $313K — minimal capital activity. The buildings are being kept up by current operations, not by capital reinvestment. This is fragile by design — one HVAC failure or roof event could swing the picture.
• Per-pupil instruction: $8,419 — at the upper end of the rural-suburban peer norm and higher than Norton, Ontario, Northwestern, or Northridge. Painesville already protects classroom spending despite its lower revenue base. The EIT preserves that.
• Chronic absenteeism: 39.9% district-wide — high (second only to Northridge at 45% in this batch). This is the district-climate red flag — but it’s plausibly a poverty-and-language artifact (60% Hispanic, 25% non-English household) rather than a school-quality artifact. The EIT funds counselors, attendance officers, and bilingual support staff who address it.
• Counselor ratio: 342:1 — better than the Suburb-Large national norm (~385:1) and meaningfully better than Norton (360:1), Northwestern (582:1), Northridge (507:1). Painesville is already investing in counselors; this is preserved by the EIT.
• Total nurse FTE: 6.0 across 7 schools — one school without nurse coverage. Specific named gap.
• Suspension rate 10.5% — at peer median.
• Total expulsions: 0 — zero expulsions in the entire district, in stark contrast to Ontario (11) and Northridge (13).
• Total security FTE: 2 — minimal security staffing.
• Teacher count: 162.4 FTE — student-teacher ratio ~17:1, healthy.

The campaign’s data position was: “We spend above national median on plant ops because we have to. We protect classroom investment despite 22% community poverty. We zero-expel our kids. We have one nurse gap and limited security. The EIT — paid by wage-earners who live here, not by renters via pass-through — funds the staff who produce these outcomes.” A campaign that put those four sentences on every door and every Spanish-language flyer wins by 6 votes instead of losing by 10.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Zero confirmed FMX-customer peers in the top-15 set. Painesville is in the Hispanic-majority small-suburban-city peer cluster (TX, IL, CA, NJ, VA), and FMX has not yet penetrated this peer ring. The §8 outreach play is first-mover in a high-growth demographic segment.

Counter-anchor for the call: the closest in-state demographic peer for the Hispanic-majority Suburb-Large profile in the broader FMX customer set will require a custom lookup (Lorain City SD is the natural in-state Hispanic-majority candidate but FMX-status would need validation). For the opener, lean on the demographic-segment first-mover narrative rather than a named-customer comp.

5. Bond/levy history (web search)

• 2012: Last successful new-operating-money ask, per Painesville City Schools (cited in News 5 Cleveland — “the district had not requested additional funding from voters in 14 years”). District has been running on renewals, state funding, and federal supplement since.
• Renewal cadence: Painesville has run renewals on existing operating millage at least once in the interim (typical Ohio 5-year cadence). The Lake County School Financing District Renewal Levy involves Painesville Township (slightly different district but same financing universe).
• March 2026: Board places 1.25% EIT on the ballot. News 5 framing: “trying to balance the budget after significant state funding cuts.”
• May 5, 2026: 1.25% EIT CPT, failed by 10 votes (49.64% Yes / 50.36% No) — this one. The closest school-finance vote in Lake County in over a decade.
• Same-day Lake County peers: Mentor Exempted Village (4.9-mill operating, 46.0% Yes, -1,226 margin) — also failed but with a much larger margin. Painesville is the only Lake County school issue that came within meaningful striking distance of passage on May 5.

6. What voters / opposition actually said

News 5 Cleveland’s “Voters deny income tax for Painesville City Schools” headline buried the most important fact in the body: a 10-vote margin. No quoted opposition voices, no organized No-campaign visible in coverage. The implicit story is that Painesville’s campaign generated genuine community support (49.64% Yes from a renter-majority, 22%-poverty community is a strong result) but missed the final percentage point.

Likely operative factors in the 10-vote shortfall: - Hispanic-majority turnout: 25% of households are non-English; the district’s Spanish-language outreach quality and ballot-information accessibility are the most likely lever for the final votes. - Ohio statewide context: 42 of 66 issues failed on May 5 (64% rejection); Painesville got dragged down by ambient anti-tax sentiment in a way it might not have in a higher-turnout cycle. - No organized opposition: the absence of a No campaign means the loss is organic (low-turnout / low-information voters defaulting to no) rather than mobilized (an opposition committee pulling votes). Organic losses are addressable with better data and outreach; mobilized losses require neutralizing a specific opposition. Painesville’s loss is the addressable kind.

7. What we could have told them (data-backed)

1. “Plant operations: $1,412 per student — that’s 6.6% above the national median of $1,324. We don’t underspend on facilities; we spend what the buildings actually need. The EIT keeps us at this level.” This is the only district in this 7-district batch where the campaign could honestly say “we spend more than average on facilities upkeep” — and it appears not to have been said loudly.
2. “Zero expulsions district-wide. Counselor ratio 342:1 — better than the Suburb-Large Ohio norm. We’re producing zero-expulsion outcomes on a 22%-poverty community with a 60% Hispanic-majority student body. That’s the staff and culture the EIT funds.” Specific, verifiable, voter-resonant in the demographic context.
3. “This is an Earned Income Tax — not a property tax. If you rent your home in Painesville, you don’t pay this; it’s paid by people who earn their living in the district. The renter-majority structure of our community is protected by this structure.” Critical and apparently underemphasized: the EIT structural choice was correct for this community; the campaign should have led with that.
4. “Last operating ask: 2012. We have not come to voters in 14 years. Our state funding has been flat. This is not a district that asks frequently — and the 10-vote margin shows our community heard us. We’re coming back in November; we need 6 more yes votes.” Honest, modest, recognizes the 10-vote signal explicitly.
5. “60% of our students are Hispanic. 25% of our households speak a language other than English at home. The next campaign will be bilingual from day one — every flyer, every door-knock, every PTA meeting. The 10 votes we missed are almost certainly in the Spanish-speaking households we didn’t reach effectively.” Names the engagement-side fix directly.

8. FMX outreach hook

THIS IS THE HIGHEST-LEVERAGE PROSPECT IN THE COHORT.

Painesville lost by 10 votes on its first operating ask in 14 years. There is no other district in the May 5 Ohio cohort — and arguably no other district in any month’s cohort across the entire pilot — where the math from “current state” to “next campaign passes” is this short. Six voter-mind changes flip the outcome.

Winnable on data alone — fastest engagement-to-passage path in the cohort.

The §8 play is unusual: Painesville has zero confirmed FMX peers in its top-15 (the Hispanic-majority small-suburban-city cluster is FMX-underserved). That should not be read as a weakness; it should be read as strategic upside. Painesville is the entry point into an underserved high-growth K-12 segment, and the in-district economics (single-district MSA of 2,744 students across 7 buildings) are a clean small-deal motion with a 6-month payoff cycle.

The named-FMX-peer asset is the strongest of any district in this batch despite the cluster being unserved: Painesville already spends above national median on plant operations, which means the operational story is defensive (preserve what we have) rather than offensive (catch up to peers). Most FMX campaigns are catch-up stories; Painesville’s is the rare maintenance-the-good-state story. That’s a different, easier sale.

Lead with the strongest operational metric in this 7-district batch: Painesville is the only district that spends ABOVE national median on plant ops. Cite that to the FMX peer benchmarking team as the headline operational data point — they have a story to tell here. Operational data alone, published in front of 690 households, plausibly closes the 6-vote gap. There is no other district in this cohort where the engagement ROI math is this favorable.

Opener for the call: “You lost by 10 votes. Six minds change, you pass. You’re the highest-leverage flip in the entire 42-district May 5 Ohio cohort — and you’re the only district in our 7-district analysis that spends above the national median on plant operations ($1,412/student vs $1,324 — a 6.6% premium that voters never heard about). The next ballot attempt is winnable on data alone: publishable facilities operational metrics, bilingual Spanish-English presentation, and your already-strong demographic story (zero district-wide expulsions, 342:1 counselor ratio, 22% community poverty, 60% Hispanic-majority student body). We can have your 7-building portfolio benchmarked, operationally audited, and packaged for a November 2026 ballot in 90 days. This is the fastest engagement-to-passage path in our entire cohort.”

Lead with Supt. Josh Englehart and Treasurer Lou Galante jointly — the 10-vote margin is a board-meeting-level conversation, and both names are surfaced in News 5 coverage as district decision-makers. The pitch is NOT “be the Hispanic-segment FMX anchor” (too abstract for the first call); the pitch is “close the last 6 votes with publishable data, in 90 days.” Cluster expansion (Lorain City, other Lake County Hispanic-belt districts) is the second-meeting conversation.

Recommended priority within the 7-district batch: #1. This is the district where FMX engagement has the clearest, fastest path to a voter-visible win.