Northridge Local — OH

1. Snapshot

Suburb-Large district just north of Dayton (Harrison Twp/Shiloh area), Montgomery County. 1,647 students across 4 schools — all housed on a single PK-12 campus that opened in 2019 (funded by a 2015 voter-approved bond that raised ~$42M). SAIPE poverty 37.1% — the highest in this 7-district batch by a wide margin and roughly 3× the Ohio cohort median. Demographics 47% White / 32% Black / 12% Multiracial / 7% Hispanic — the most racially diverse district in the batch. Per-pupil expenditure $21,369 (FY2020).

Northridge has a recent yes-record: the 2015 PK-12 campus bond passed 60-40. This 4.4-mill CPT ask — at $77/$100K home, raising ~$414K/year for ongoing repairs and the 10-year capital plan — failed by 94 votes on a tiny 764-vote turnout. The ask was the right structure (PI levy, not operating), aimed at the right buildings (the same campus voters approved a decade ago). The story didn’t connect.

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

This is the lowest-income, lowest-home-value, lowest-college-attainment community in the 7-district batch. Median HHI under $40K, median home value at 23% of the national median, BA-or-higher at one-third the U.S. average, and 32% poverty per SAIPE. A 4.4-mill CPT on a $77K home is $339/year — small in absolute dollars but roughly 1% of a $37K household’s annual income, forever. The district is also 44% renter (43.2% non-owner-occupied) which means a meaningful share of the “no” votes came from people who don’t directly pay property tax but vote on principle against landlord-pass-through rent hikes.

The 2015 bond passed because it built one thing voters could see — a brand-new K-12 campus. The 2026 PI levy asked for permanent annual revenue to maintain that campus. In a 37%-poverty community, “permanent” is the word that loses elections. This is the same CPT-structure failure that sunk East Clinton (33.6% Yes) and Norton (40.9% Yes) — different demographics, identical structural objection.

3. Peer comparison

Top peers via MCP (default weights + plant-ops emphasis). FMX-customer status resolved against opted-in local benchmarking server.

Confirmed FMX customers in top 15 (2): Rossford Exempted Village (OH), New Haven Community Schools (MI).

4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Northridge is the most expensively-run district in this 7-district batch ($21,369 PPE) and the poorest community paying for it. The data tells a “high-spending, high-need” story — exactly the story a PI levy at $339/year could have leaned on:

• Plant operations spending: $1,248.23 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — only 5.7% below national median, the closest-to-median of any district in this 7-district batch. Northridge is not under-investing in plant ops the way Norton ($779) or Ontario ($863) are. This actually undermines the “we need to catch up” framing — the district is keeping pace. The story has to be forward-looking (10-year capital plan, auditorium, safety) not catch-up.
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $4.082M — material recent activity (the 2019 campus). The PI levy is to sustain that investment, not start a new one.
• Per-pupil instruction $9,420 — above peers (Rossford $9,800-equiv; New Haven similar). Instruction is well-funded; the gap is in operations/PI.
• Chronic absenteeism: 45.1% district-wide — the highest of any district in this 7-district batch, and one of the highest in the entire 42-district cohort. Nearly half of Northridge’s students are chronically absent.
• Counselor ratio: 507:1 — well above the rural-suburban national norm (~385:1); worse than Norton (360:1), Painesville (342:1), Paulding (310:1).
• Total nurse FTE: 1.0 across 4 schools — one nurse for the entire district of 1,647 students in a 37%-poverty community. This is the single most defensible PI-levy ask the campaign didn’t lead with.
• Suspension rate 17.9% — middle of pack.
• Total expulsions: 13 in a 1,647-student district = 0.79% expulsion rate — meaningfully high.

The data the campaign could have leaned on: “1 nurse for 1,647 students. 45% chronic absenteeism. Half our kids aren’t here, and we have one adult to triage their health, behavior, and attendance needs.” That’s a PI-levy-shaped argument (a PI levy can fund building improvements and equipment, including renovating clinic/health spaces). The data the campaign apparently did lean on: the 10-year capital plan and auditorium renovation. In a 37%-poverty community, “auditorium renovation” reads as luxury — not a survival ask.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Pulled live from fmxFacilities for each confirmed FMX-customer peer above. These are the actual operational profiles Northridge is being measured against — and what the next campaign can cite directly.

New Haven Community Schools (MI) is the load-bearing comp: 1,555 students, 22% SAIPE poverty (closest poverty match to Northridge in the FMX peer set), Suburb-Large locale, 97.8% work-order resolution (network 86.5th percentile), HVAC 10.1% of WOs (75.1st percentile — elevated). Rossford has a partial snapshot (8 buildings tracked, ops data still backfilling).

5. Bond/levy history (web search)

• 2015: ~2.7-mill bond, passed 60-40 — funded the new PK-12 campus that opened in 2019. Northridge was a “yes” community 11 years ago.
• Prior 2.4-mill PI levy (approved 2002) — expiring; this 4.4-mill CPT was the larger replacement.
• May 5, 2026: 4.4-mill PI CPT, failed 43.85% Yes / 94 votes — this one. (Note: Dayton Daily News framed it as “2.2-mill” in earlier coverage; the OSOS data shows 4.4-mill — possible rate adjustment between announcement and ballot, or DDN error. The OSOS millage governs.)

The trajectory matters: a 60-40 yes in 2015 → 44-56 no in 2026 is a 16-percentage-point swing against the district in 11 years, on the same buildings. Between then and now: COVID, the 2019 campus opening, the report-card / chronic-absenteeism environment, and statewide hostility to school taxes. None of those are Northridge-specific.

6. What voters / opposition actually said

Dayton Daily News and WYSO covered the May 5 result as a one-line “Northridge and Jefferson Twp. voters rejected levies” — no quoted opposition voice and no organized No campaign surfaced. The DDN pre-election piece quoted Supt. Jackson and Treasurer Green making the case (10-year plan, auditorium, safety/security) but did not surface community-side counter-quotes. The absence of public debate is itself a finding: a $339/year ask on a 1,647-student district generated 764 total votes — that’s roughly 12-15% of registered voters. This was a turnout-and-attention failure, not a contested-debate failure. The community didn’t reject the levy so much as fail to engage with it.

7. What we could have told them (data-backed)

1. “One nurse. 1,647 students. 37% community poverty. The PI levy funds clinic-renovation and equipment so that one nurse can triage 1,647 kids — including the 45% who are chronically absent and often missing because of health/behavior gaps that a properly equipped clinic could catch.” Concrete, building-shaped, demographically honest.
2. “45% chronic absenteeism — the highest in the May 5 Ohio cohort. The PI levy renovates the spaces (counseling offices, health suites, attendance-officer workspace) where the daily intervention happens. New auditorium isn’t on the front of the brochure; kid-recovery infrastructure is.” Reframes the 10-year-plan line items.
3. “Plant operations: $1,248/student — we’re at 94% of the national median. We’re not asking to catch up; we’re asking to stay at that level. Letting plant ops slip below national median is what produced the 2019 campus needing renovation a decade after opening — Eastmont WA spent $919, and their 60-year-old elementaries are why they ran a bond. We don’t want to be Eastmont.” Connects spending to outcomes voters can verify externally.
4. “This is CPT because building maintenance doesn’t pause for renewal cycles. If permanent is the dealbreaker, we’ll come back in November as a 10-year levy — but the 10-year-plan calendar still requires the same dollars, just with a 2036 reset built in.” Concedes the structural objection.
5. “Our 2015 bond built this campus. 11 years later, the same community that voted 60-40 yes is voting 44-56 no on its upkeep. That’s the cost of not telling the story between elections.”

8. FMX outreach hook

Northridge has 2 confirmed FMX-customer peers in the top 15 peer set — one in-state (Rossford) and one out-of-state but demographically matched (New Haven MI). Realistic engagement: a Suburb-Large, single-campus, high-poverty district that already publicly runs on a 2019-built campus is a natural FMX fit — the PK-12-on-one-site portfolio is exactly the operational profile FMX customers exhibit.

• New Haven Community Schools (MI, 214 mi, enrollment 1,555, 93% similarity, newhaven.gofmx.com): work-order resolution 97.8% (86.5th percentile network-wide), HVAC 10.1% of WOs (75.1st percentile — elevated), 1,519 total WOs YTD, 8 buildings tracked. Closest demographic peer to Northridge (22% SAIPE poverty vs Northridge’s 37%, both Suburb-Large).
• Rossford Exempted Village (OH, 129 mi N, enrollment 1,560, 94% similarity, rossfordschools.gofmx.com): 8 buildings tracked, ops data backfilling. In-state peer — the credibility anchor.

Opener for the call: “You lost a $339/year PI levy by 94 votes on a campus voters built for you 11 years ago. Your closest demographic FMX peer — New Haven Community Schools, MI, 22% poverty, Suburb-Large — runs at 97.8% work-order resolution, which is the 86.5th percentile of the entire FMX network. That’s a publishable number. Your campaign cited the 10-year capital plan; the next one needs to cite your peers. We can have your portfolio benchmarked against Rossford (OH) and New Haven (MI) in 60 days, in time for an August ballot certification for a November rerun.”

Lead with Treasurer Lori Green (she’s the one who has to justify a third attempt and is named in DDN’s coverage as the financial spokesperson). Validate rossfordschools.gofmx.com against the internal customer list before outbound — resolved via the MCP unredacted endpoint on the local server.