Jefferson Township Local — OH

1. Snapshot — the smallest, poorest, most segregated district in the batch

Suburb-Large district in Jefferson Township (Montgomery County), an unincorporated township southwest of Dayton. 277 students across 3 schools (Blairwood Elementary K-6, Jefferson Jr./Sr. High 7-12). This is the smallest district in the 7-batch by a factor of 4 — the next-smallest (Independence) has 1,044 students. SAIPE poverty 28.0% — the highest in the batch by a wide margin. Demographics 13% White / 64% Black / 7% Hispanic / 16% Multiracial — the only majority-Black district in the batch and one of very few in Ohio.

Per-pupil expenditure $26,742 — the highest in the batch (Independence is $19,411). This is not a wealthy district running high PPE — this is a small district with high fixed costs spreading them across only 277 students. Median household income $64,327, median home value $121,600 — the lowest home value in the batch.

Zero FMX peers in the top 15 (only district in the 7-batch with fmx_profiles length 0). The district profile is so small and demographically distinctive that the peer set is dominated by similarly-tiny, similarly-segregated districts (Lindop SD 92 IL, Signal Hill SD 181 IL, Fairmont SD 89 IL — all Chicago-area Black-segregated micro-districts).

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

Below-median income, home values at 36% of national median (lowest in batch), 81% owner-occupancy. This is a working-class, predominantly Black, owner-occupied township that has lost population and tax base over decades — the classic Dayton-suburb-decline pattern. Combined with 28% SAIPE poverty (almost double the next-highest district in the batch), the tax capacity for a new 1.25% EIT is genuinely thin: $800/year on a $64K household is meaningful.

The 33.8% Yes is not unusual for this demographic profile. Small-enrollment, high-poverty, majority-Black districts in Ohio see income tax rejections routinely. This is a structural result, not a campaign-design failure.

3. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Jefferson Township’s data tells a crisis story — and the campaign should have led with it:

• Plant operations spending: $2,306 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 74% ABOVE national median. This is the highest plant-ops/pupil in the 7-batch by a wide margin. The reason is fixed cost over tiny enrollment: 3 buildings to operate with only 277 students means per-pupil operations costs are inflated even if total operations spending is modest.
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $0 — zero. Same Vermilion-style data point. No capital activity in a recent reported year.
• Utilities/energy: $123,000 — small absolute number, but $444/pupil is high.
• Per-pupil instruction: $9,904 — moderate.
• Chronic absenteeism: 47.5% district-wide. Blairwood Elementary at 51%. Jefferson Jr./Sr. HS at 43%. Nearly half the students are chronically absent — the highest chronic-absenteeism rate in the batch by 19 percentage points. This is a school-engagement crisis, not a buildings crisis.
• Suspension rate: 12% district-wide. Jefferson Jr./Sr. HS at 14.8%, Blairwood Elementary at 9.5%.
• Counselor ratio: 138:1 — exceptionally low (i.e., good coverage). Only 1 counselor total, but only 277 students — that math works out.
• 3 schools without a nurse (0 total nurse FTE — zero nurse coverage across the district).
• 0 expulsions.

The most striking pair: 47.5% chronic absenteeism + 0 nurse FTE. Half the students aren’t showing up and there’s no nurse to address the underlying health/welfare reasons. The EIT campaign could have said “$800/year per household to put a nurse in every building and an attendance officer at the high school” — concrete, named, defensible.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Zero FMX-customer peers in the top 15. The peer set is dominated by similarly-tiny majority-Black/Hispanic micro-districts in Chicagoland and NY (Lindop SD 92, Signal Hill SD 181, Green Island UFSD, Fairmont SD 89, Chartertech High School NJ). None are on FMX.

This is a net-new FMX onboarding with no peer-set proof points to lead with. The pitch has to be the operational story for Jefferson Township’s own data once on-platform, not “look at your peers.”

4. Bond/levy history (Ballotpedia + news)

Jefferson Township Local has been a chronic-fail district on operating asks for years. Per Ballotpedia and Dayton-area coverage: - Multiple failed operating levies in 2020-2024 (validate specific dates from district communications). - May 5, 2026: 1.25% EIT, CPT, failed at 33.80% Yes / 327-vote margin. - District is on the Ohio Department of Education fiscal-watch / fiscal-emergency trajectory (probable — validate with current ODE status). High-poverty Dayton-area micro-districts of this size routinely cycle through fiscal-watch.

5. What voters / opposition actually said

No surfaced organized opposition coverage. The 33.8% Yes in a 28%-poverty majority-Black district is a capacity failure, not a trust failure or a campaign-design failure. Voters genuinely can’t afford a $800/year permanent income tax.

The strategic framing problem for FMX: this district will likely cycle into state fiscal control before the next ballot attempt succeeds. The path isn’t “improve the data story for the next campaign” — it’s more likely “operate under state oversight while the community demographics or tax base shift.” FMX has limited leverage on that timeline.

6. What we could have told them — but the structural problem is bigger than data

1. “47.5% chronic absenteeism. The state average is 26%. Our elementary at 51%. The EIT funds the attendance officers, social workers, and (any) nurses that move that number — these aren’t optional staff, they’re the difference between a district that exists in 5 years and one that doesn’t.” Sympathetic, specific, true.
2. “Zero nurse FTE across 3 schools. Zero. The EIT contracts a school nurse for each building.” Concrete, named, defensible.
3. “Per-pupil plant operations $2,306 — 74% above national. That’s because we operate 3 buildings for 277 students. The EIT isn’t asking voters to fund inefficiency; it’s asking voters to fund the per-pupil cost of having schools at all in a small community.” Acknowledge the small-district economics head-on.
4. The honest message: Jefferson Township Local is structurally too small to sustain its current footprint. The EIT delays the inevitable (consolidation with Dayton Public, Trotwood-Madison, or West Carrollton). Voters may have rejected the EIT precisely because they understand this and don’t see the levy as a sustainable answer.
5. Re-scope dramatically: 0.5% (not 1.25%), 5-year (not CPT), specific named purpose (nurses + attendance), pair with a public conversation about consolidation options.

7. FMX outreach hook

Jefferson Township Local is not on FMX. Zero FMX-customer peers in the top 15. This is structurally the hardest of the 7 to pitch.

Realistic angle: state-fiscal-oversight context. If/when the district enters Ohio fiscal-watch, the state will require operational transparency tooling. FMX is a credible answer. Pitch to the State Auditor’s office or the ODE-appointed fiscal team if/when they come in, not to the district’s current leadership.

No FMX peers to name. The pitch is FMX’s value proposition itself, not peer-set proof points.

Opener for the call (if pitching the district directly): “Your May 5 1.25% EIT failed at 33.80% Yes — a 327-vote margin in a district with 47.5% chronic absenteeism and zero nurses across three buildings. The next campaign needs a credible operational-transparency story: how the existing dollars are spent, what staff coverage actually looks like, where the gaps are. We can have your facilities portfolio benchmarked in 60 days, in time for a re-scoped attempt.”

Realistic engagement framing: this is probably not a near-term FMX sale. The district is likely heading for state fiscal oversight, consolidation conversation, or both. Track ODE fiscal-watch status quarterly and re-engage when/if a state-appointed administrator takes over.

Lead the call against the Superintendent or Treasurer — but expect the district to politely decline or be unable to budget for FMX. Better play: warm the relationship now, monitor for state takeover, pitch to the state administrator when the moment comes.

8. Recommended angle

The hardest district in the batch. Smallest, poorest, most-segregated, no FMX peers in the top 15. The 33.80% Yes is a structural tax-capacity failure, not a campaign-design failure. Realistic FMX play: monitor ODE fiscal-watch status, engage when/if state appoints administrator. Near-term direct pitch unlikely to close.