Evergreen Local — OH

1. Snapshot

Rural-Distant district in Metamora (Fulton County), northwest Ohio near the Michigan/Indiana border. 1,119 students across 3 schools. SAIPE poverty 7.5% — among the lowest poverty rates in the May 2026 failed cohort. Demographics 92% White / 5.7% Hispanic / 1.4% Black — homogeneous rural. Per-pupil expenditure $15,759 (FY2020).

The headline finding: this was a renewal at the existing rate (0.25%), not a new tax. Voters rejected the continuation of an income tax they’d previously approved. That’s a categorically different signal than “the new ask is too much” — it’s “we changed our minds about the existing arrangement.” 72-vote margin makes it a flippable result with a corrected campaign.

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

Above-median income, modest home values (54% of national), highest owner-occupancy in the 7-district batch (83.7%). Bachelor’s attainment notably low for a community at this income level. This is a fixed-asset, owner-occupied, modest-college community — voters here track property and income tax exposure carefully. A 0.25% renewal failing at 47.67% Yes is the most surprising result in the batch on its face — this is the demographic profile that should renew a small EIT routinely.

3. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Evergreen’s facilities investment is actually above the national median — making the “we need money to maintain buildings” pitch impossible. The campaign needed a different story.

• Plant operations spending: $1,345.92 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 2% above the national median. Evergreen is not an under-invested-facilities district. This is the only district in the 7-batch that’s at or above national plant ops, and it explains why a “your buildings need help” pitch wouldn’t have worked.
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $655,000 — modest but present.
• Per-pupil instruction: $8,600 — solid, above the rural-distant peer norm.
• Chronic absenteeism: 11.9% — low compared to peers. Suspension rate 0.6% — essentially zero. School climate is strong; this can’t be the bond story.
• Total expulsions: 0 — clean.
• Counselor ratio: 373:1 — middling; not a sympathetic ask.
• 1 school without a nurse out of 3 — a specific named gap.

The bond/levy positioning problem: Evergreen runs a well-managed, adequately-funded district. There’s no crisis to point at. A renewal in that context is a trust ask, not a need ask. And the community said “no” to extending trust, by 72 votes.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Pulled live from fmxFacilities for each confirmed FMX-customer peer. None of Evergreen’s top-15 are FMX customers; the closest FMX peers are at 95% similarity but more distant.

These peers are partial snapshots — newly-onboarded customers whose data layer is still backfilling. The presence of three FMX-customer peers at ≥95% similarity is still the load-bearing signal: comparable districts are on the platform.

4. Bond/levy history (Ballotpedia + news)

• 2021 (likely): Original 0.25% Earned Income Tax approved, 5-year term — this May 2026 vote was the renewal.
• May 5, 2026: Renewal failed at 47.67% Yes / 72-vote margin.
• Next steps: Ohio districts in this position typically re-run the renewal in November of the same year with an adjusted communication strategy. Watch for a November 2026 ballot return.

The renewal failure pattern in northwest Ohio rural districts in 2025-2026 is part of a documented regional trend (per Ideastream coverage of NEO November 2025 levy rejections — same dynamic likely at play here in NW Ohio).

5. What voters / opposition actually said

No surfaced opposition coverage. The 72-vote margin and the renewal (not new) structure means there was no organized opposition committee — just a quiet community that didn’t show up to vote yes. The absence of public debate is itself a finding: same dynamic as Vermilion Local — when an Ohio district fails a renewal with no visible opposition, the problem is campaign engagement, not voter persuasion.

6. What we could have told them

1. “This is a RENEWAL. You already approved this tax five years ago. The schools haven’t gotten worse; the staff hasn’t grown unreasonably; we’re asking for the same money you already said yes to. Here’s exactly what those dollars do (and don’t do).” Lead with the renewal framing — the 72-vote margin says voters didn’t fully grasp this wasn’t a new ask.
2. “Plant operations spending: $1,346 per pupil — we’re at the national median, not below. The renewal money isn’t going to fix buildings (the buildings are fine). It funds the teachers, counselors, and aides that produced our 11.9% chronic absenteeism (well below peers) and 0.6% suspension rate (effectively zero). That’s what the renewal protects.” Lead with what the money buys — and lead with school climate outcomes, which are unusually strong here.
3. “One of our three schools has no nurse. The renewal helps us close that gap without coming back for new money.” Specific, named gap.
4. “72 votes. Out of 1,544 cast. A door-to-door push to 100 known yes-voters in the next 60 days flips this in November.” Frame as a turnout problem, not a persuasion problem.

7. FMX outreach hook

Evergreen Local is not currently on FMX. Three FMX-customer peers exist at ≥95% similarity, all of which are partial-snapshot newcomers themselves. The pitch is net-new onboarding, framed for the November 2026 (or May 2027) re-attempt.

• Preble Shawnee Local (OH, 145 mi south, enroll 1,043, 95% similarity, psarrows.gofmx.com) — 5 buildings, 91.4% resolution, HVAC 9.3% of WOs. Same state, same rural-distant locale — the most relevant cross-reference for a voter audience.
• Red Bud CUSD 132 (IL, 399 mi, enroll 1,055, 96% similarity, redbud132.gofmx.com) — 4 buildings, 85.7% resolution.
• Bentworth SD (PA, 233 mi, enroll 1,126, 95% similarity, bentworth.gofmx.com) — 7 buildings, 77.2% resolution.

Opener for the call: “Your May 5 0.25% income tax renewal failed by 72 votes — a flippable result. The next campaign needs a transparency artifact: ‘here’s what the schools cost to run, here’s what each building actually consumes, here’s how we compare to in-state peers.’ Preble Shawnee Local (145 miles south, same rural-distant profile) is already on FMX and publishing these numbers. We can have your portfolio benchmarked against them in 60-90 days, in time for a November 2026 re-attempt.”

12-18 month engagement framed around the next ballot attempt. Lead with Treasurer/CFO; pair the data story with the renewal narrative (not a new-tax narrative).

8. Recommended angle

EIT renewal failure (72-vote margin) — the rarest pattern in the cohort. Operational transparency for the next campaign, framed as renewal-defense not new-tax-justification. Plant ops at-or-above national median means the pitch isn’t “facilities are failing” — it’s “this is what well-run looks like, and here’s the proof.”