Chillicothe City Schools — OH

1. Snapshot

Town-Distant district in Ross County, ~50 miles south of Columbus. 2,589 students across 5 buildings — Chillicothe HS (9-12), Chillicothe MS (7-8), Chillicothe Intermediate (3-6), Chillicothe Primary (K-2), Mt. Logan Early Childhood Center (PK). SAIPE poverty 19.6%. Demographics 73% White / 15% Multiracial / 7% Black / 5% Hispanic — notably high multiracial share for a Town-Distant Ohio district. Per-pupil expenditure $15,105 (FY2020).

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

This is a modest-income, English-monolingual, mixed-tenure Town-Distant community — median HHI just over $50K, median home value $136K. The 0.75% EIT on a $50K wage = $375/year, ongoing 5-year commitment. The May 5, 2026 statewide hostility (42 of 66 issues failed, 24 of 42 were EITs) was the macro headwind.

The 61-vote margin is the story. Out of 3,655 ballots cast, the measure lost by 1.67 percentage points. The absentee-vs-election-day split is telling: absentee broke 1,225 Yes / 1,273 No (a 48-vote No margin); Election Day broke 572 Yes / 585 No (a 13-vote No margin). Both vote channels narrowly leaned No — meaning the loss wasn’t a single-channel collapse but a uniform tilt. This is the second-most-flippable failure in the 7-district set (Cardington’s 126-vote margin is closer in raw ballots but Chillicothe’s is closer in percentage).

3. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Chillicothe’s data tells a climate-crisis-with-OK-buildings story — similar shape to Ashtabula, and a similar mismatch between what the ask was for (operations) and what the data flags (kids not showing up).

• Plant operations spending: $1,295 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 2% below national median. At-median. Voters cannot be sold “we under-invest in buildings.”
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $1,165,000 — material capital activity for a 2,589-student district. Not a deferred-capital district at the headline level.
• Per-pupil instruction: $7,795 — below state averages, mid-pack vs peers. Below Pottsville PA ($8,500+), South Lane OR ($8,600), Newton IA ($8,200).
• Utilities/energy spend: $528K — middle of pack.
• Chronic absenteeism: 52.0% district-wide. Chillicothe HS 61.8%, Chillicothe MS 60.1%, Chillicothe Primary 43.9%, Chillicothe Intermediate 43.0%. Over half the students chronically absent. That is the headline emergency, and the operating ask wasn’t framed around it.
• Suspension: 20.3% district-wide. Chillicothe MS 57.4% — middle school discipline is in crisis: nearly six-in-ten middle schoolers suspended in a year. Chillicothe HS 18.9%, Intermediate 15.9%, Primary 1.6%.
• 5 expulsions district-wide — modest. Suspension is the lever.
• Counselor ratio 300:1 — better than peer median (~410:1). 4.0 counselor FTE district-wide. Not the gap.
• Nurse coverage: 5 of 5 buildings have one. 5.0 nurse FTE. Full coverage — strong.
• Total school administrators: 33 FTE — that’s the high number for a 5-school district (peer norm ~10-15). This is a “what does that headcount mean” potential vulnerability voters can pick at.

The data narrative here: buildings, counselor staffing, and nurse coverage are all fine. Middle school discipline is collapsing. The operating ask never tied the two together. The 61-vote loss says: voters were almost convinced. They didn’t quite get there because the campaign told them “we need money” without telling them “and here’s the specific outcome you’ll see at Chillicothe MS.”

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Logan-Hocking Local is 35 miles from Chillicothe — same Town-Distant locale, adjacent Hocking County, comparable enrollment (3,364 vs 2,589). 12 buildings tracked, 35-yr portfolio age, but 31.5% work-order resolution — Logan-Hocking is publishing data that shows they’re behind on closing tickets, which is actually the more honest comparable for an Ohio peer than a TX district hitting 96%. Carthage TX is the cleaner operational benchmark: 18 buildings, 366K sqft, 96.1% resolution, $1.26/sqft, 16% HVAC burden.

4. Bond/levy history

• Prior history: Coverage references Chillicothe asking voters before; details not surfaced in the May 2026 cycle wrap-up. CCS Levy FAQ page at ccsd.us/o/ccs/page/levy-faq would have the institutional history.
• April 2026: Chillicothe Today (national-today.com) ran a pre-vote piece on the district seeking voter approval — community-level engagement was clearly elevated.
• May 5, 2026: 0.75% EIT 5-year additional defeated 49.2% Yes / 61-vote margin — a first-ask near-miss.
• Likely next: The 61-vote miss suggests the district will likely come back. The state property-tax reform conversation is a backdrop, but a 0.75% EIT is itself a low-friction structural ask compared to a property-tax levy.

The 61-vote loss is the easiest scale-of-redirection in the 7-district set. 31 voter swing flips this. That’s a campaign that can run again in November 2026 at the same dollar amount with a tighter message and likely win.

5. What voters / opposition said

Scioto Valley Guardian and AOL coverage were neutral, results-focused, no opposition quotes. The 61-vote margin means no organized opposition coalition was needed to defeat this — the May 5 statewide voter mood did the work. Statewide context is the actual opposition story: 42 of 66 issues failed; 24 of 42 failures were EITs. Chillicothe’s 49% Yes is actually above the cohort EIT-failure average for the day. The district’s campaign was competently run; the headwind was structural.

6. What we could have told them

1. “You lost by 61 votes out of 3,655 cast. A swing of 31 voters flips this in November. The campaign was good. The macro was bad. The next ask is the same ask, run again, after the statewide EIT wave has crested.” Tactical truth — no structural redesign needed.
2. “Chillicothe Middle School: 57.4% suspension rate. Chillicothe High School: 61.8% chronic absenteeism. The operating dollars are what fund the counselors, attendance coaches, and behavioral support staff who get those numbers down. This levy is not abstract operations — it is specifically the 7th-8th grade discipline pipeline.” Names the school, names the outcome.
3. “Plant ops $1,295/student vs national $1,324 — we are at the national maintenance median. We’re not under-investing in buildings. The next campaign should concede that and pivot the argument to what the operating budget actually funds: people.” Disarms “schools are wasteful” by admitting the building budget is fine.
4. “Logan-Hocking 35 miles east in Hocking County runs FMX and publishes work-order data — including their gaps. We don’t publish that today. Adding the data layer is what makes the next ask defensible against ‘we don’t know where the money goes.’” Names the closest FMX peer.
5. “33 school administrators across 5 buildings. That’s the number a No voter will pick at. The next campaign should pre-emptively name what those 33 do.” Operational advice on the ballot’s most likely opposition wedge.

7. FMX outreach hook

Chillicothe is 2 named FMX peers in the top 15 — including an Ohio peer 35 miles away. The pitch is shaped by the 61-vote margin: this is a win the next ask engagement, not a redesign the next ask engagement. The data layer is the marginal improvement, not the wholesale repositioning.

• Carthage ISD (TX, 807 mi, enrollment 2,637, 91% similarity, carthageisd.gofmx.com): 18 buildings, 366,000 sqft, 40.4-yr portfolio age, 96.1% resolution, $1.26/sqft, 4.52 WO/Ksf, 16.1% HVAC burden.
• Logan-Hocking Local (OH, 35 mi, enrollment 3,364, 91% similarity, loganhocking.gofmx.com): 12 buildings, 35-yr portfolio age, 31.5% resolution (a candid Ohio benchmark), 7.5% HVAC burden.

Opener for the call: “You lost by 61 votes out of 3,655 cast. The campaign was competent — the headwind was the statewide May 5 EIT wave, where 24 of 42 failed measures were earned-income taxes. The next ask doesn’t need redesign; it needs a data layer. Logan-Hocking Local — 35 miles east in Hocking County, your same Town-Distant locale, similar enrollment — publishes their work-order data inside FMX, including the gaps. Carthage Texas, 91% similar, runs 96% resolution across 18 buildings. The November 2026 attempt or May 2027 re-run can cite what you spend per-square-foot, what your HVAC backlog looks like, and how that compares to peers — none of which today’s campaign could do. We can have your 5-building portfolio benchmarked inside 60 days.”

Lead with Superintendent + Treasurer/CFO (names not in OSBA data — source via ccsd.us). The 61-vote margin and competent prior campaign make this the shortest-conversion district in this 7-set: a clean operational data layer plus the statewide voter-mood reset by November almost certainly flips this.