Cardington-Lincoln Local Schools — OH

1. Snapshot

Rural-Distant district in Morrow County, ~45 miles north of Columbus. 920 students across 3 buildings — Cardington-Lincoln ES (PK-4), Cardington-Lincoln MS (5-8), Cardington-Lincoln HS (9-12). SAIPE poverty 12.9%. Demographics 93% White / 3% Multiracial / 2% Hispanic — nearly homogeneous rural Ohio. Per-pupil expenditure $13,176 (FY2020).

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

This is a modest-income, low-college-attainment, high-homeownership rural Morrow County community. The 2.1-mill ask at $148/year on a $200K home is small in absolute terms — but the 45% Yes / 126-vote margin tells a different story than the dollar amount.

Crucially: per Morrow County Sentinel, this is the district’s third attempt at this same permanent-improvements levy. A 2.1-mill PI levy has lost three times in a row in a community where the dollar ask is genuinely modest. The structural diagnosis: rural Ohio voters do not separate “permanent improvements” from “general operations” mentally — they see another school tax, and the May 5, 2026 statewide hostility (42 of 66 issues failed) gave them the social proof to vote no.

Note: the 1,328-ballot turnout is tiny — this is a low-engagement rural election where a 126-vote margin is genuinely flippable on relatively modest GOTV improvement. This is the most flip-able failure in the 7-district set.

3. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Cardington’s data tells a competent, modestly under-invested rural-district story — the PI levy is plausibly justifiable, but the campaign isn’t producing the proof layer.

• Plant operations spending: $1,310 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 1% below national median. Effectively at the median. The PI levy’s rationale is not “we’re behind on plant ops” — it’s “we need to fund the next round of capital.”
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $27,000 — near-zero across a 3-building, 920-student district for an entire year. This is the PI levy justification. The plant-ops budget keeps the buildings running today; the PI levy is what funds HVAC replacements, parking lots, security upgrades, and Chromebooks — the kinds of things deferred when the bond capacity isn’t there.
• Per-pupil instruction: $7,464 — middle of the peer band (peer median ~$13,000-$14,500). Reasonable for rural Ohio.
• Utilities/energy spend: $405K — significant relative to the $27K capital outlay. The lights stay on; the HVAC doesn’t get replaced.
• Chronic absenteeism: 14.1% district-wide. Cardington-Lincoln HS 17.1%, Cardington-Lincoln ES 16.6%, Cardington-Lincoln MS 8.1%. Healthy by Ohio standards.
• Suspension: 9.1% district-wide. MS 16.3%, HS 15.1%, ES 0.3%. The MS/HS are middling; the ES is squeaky-clean.
• 5 expulsions district-wide.
• Counselor ratio 307:1 — better than the peer-cluster median (~410:1). 3.25 counselor FTE across 920 students. Strong staffing.
• Nurse coverage: 3 of 3 buildings have one. 0.99 total nurse FTE (less than 1 FTE shared across buildings — thin).
• Climate is healthier than the cohort — Cardington’s failed levy is not a climate-crisis story.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Two Ohio FMX customer peers, both within 50 miles of Cardington. Centerburg Local is 17 miles away — same Morrow-County-adjacent rural profile, 6 buildings, 62-year average portfolio age, 86.4% resolution. New London Local (48 mi, Huron County) is the cleanest comparable: 25-yr portfolio age (younger), 90.2% resolution, $0.0036/sqft — the modern rural Ohio district benchmark Cardington could reference directly. This is the best geographic-peer FMX footprint of any district in the 7-set re-run.

4. Bond/levy history

• Per Morrow County Sentinel: the May 2026 attempt is the district’s third try at this 2.1-mill PI levy. Prior two attempts not dated in available coverage — FMX team should validate with the district.
• Oct 2025: Spinner gave info session to village council on the upcoming levy attempt.
• March 2026: Spinner updated village council again as the May ballot approached.
• May 5, 2026: 2.1-mill PI levy defeated 45.3% Yes / 126-vote margin — third consecutive failure.

The 45% Yes share on attempt #3 is encouraging and discouraging: it’s tightened from prior attempts (presumably — coverage doesn’t quote prior margins), but three swings on the same ask has produced the same structural answer. The fourth attempt cannot be the fourth identical attempt.

5. What voters / opposition said

Morrow County Sentinel coverage from the pre-vote period was informational, not advocacy — Spinner’s info sessions to village council had the tone of district staff explaining the math, not a campaign building enthusiasm. There is no organized “Vote No” coverage. The 1,328-ballot turnout suggests most of the community did not engage. The 126-vote loss is not a passionate-opposition story; it is a low-engagement story where the people who showed up leaned no.

This is the failure shape FMX outreach can most realistically help solve: the next campaign needs a data layer to drive turnout and earned media, not to defeat an organized opposition that doesn’t exist.

6. What we could have told them

1. “$27,000 in capital construction last year. Across the entire district. That’s the line the PI levy funds. Without it, the $27K stays $27K — and parking lots, HVAC, security cameras, and Chromebooks all queue.” The single most concrete number for a PI levy ask.
2. “Centerburg Local — 17 miles from us, same rural Morrow-County-adjacent profile, 6 buildings, 62-year average portfolio age — publishes 86% work-order resolution inside FMX. New London Local up the road (48 mi) runs 25-year portfolio age and 90% resolution at $0.0036/sqft. We don’t publish either today. The next ask will need to.” Names the closest geographic FMX peers — both Ohio.
3. “Three attempts in a row at 2.1 mills for permanent improvements. The structure isn’t the dollar amount — it’s that ‘permanent improvements’ reads as ‘general taxes’ to voters. Restructure as a 5-year HVAC + security capital ask, named specifically. Voters approve named projects.”
4. “This vote lost by 126 ballots out of 1,328 cast. Turnout is the lever — not persuasion. A 200-vote GOTV improvement in November flips this.” Tactical advice.
5. “Plant ops $1,310/student vs national $1,324 — we’re at the median on operations. We’re not asking for more to keep the buildings running; we’re asking for the small capital wedge that keeps them current.” Disarms “schools are wasteful” — the data backs the framing.

7. FMX outreach hook

Cardington is the highest-FMX-fit district in the 7-set re-run by geography. Centerburg Local at 17 miles is the closest FMX-customer peer of any district in this entire May 2026 re-run, full stop, and New London Local at 48 mi rounds it out. Both are Ohio rural districts already publishing operational data — Cardington’s next ask can cite Ohio comparables, which is the most credible benchmark for a Morrow County voter.

• New London Local (OH, 48 mi, enrollment 892, 96% similarity, nlschools.gofmx.com): 10 buildings, 162,485 sqft, 25-yr portfolio age, 90.2% resolution, $0.0036/sqft, 0.69 WO/Ksf, 4.5% HVAC burden.
• Centerburg Local (OH, 17 mi, enrollment 983, 95% similarity, centerburgschools.gofmx.com): 6 buildings, 265,064 sqft, 62.3-yr portfolio age, 86.4% resolution, 3.08 WO/Ksf, 1.3% HVAC burden.

Opener for the call: “You just lost a 2.1-mill permanent-improvements levy by 126 votes — the third consecutive failure on the same ask. The next campaign can’t be the same campaign again, and it has to be backed by data the prior three didn’t have. Centerburg Local — 17 miles from Cardington in the same Morrow-County-adjacent rural locale — publishes 86% work-order resolution and a 62-year portfolio age inside FMX. New London Local up in Huron County (48 mi) runs a younger 25-year portfolio at 90% resolution and $0.0036/sqft. Both are at 95%+ similarity to your district. We can have your 3-building portfolio benchmarked against them inside 60 days, with the per-building capital backlog data the next ballot — November 2026 or May 2027 — needs.”

Lead with Superintendent Spinner (per Morrow County Sentinel coverage) and Treasurer/CFO (name not in OSBA data — source via cardington.k12.oh.us). The PI-levy timing typically means a November 2026 re-attempt is on the table. 60-day onboarding gets data in front of voters before the next ballot’s prep cycle.