May 5, 2026 · Ohio · with comparator
66 issues. 42 rejected. Measure type explained more than facilities investment did.
When the 24 passing districts are added back to the analysis, the headline finding inverts: FMX-customer status doesn't predict pass/fail in this cycle (passers 21% on FMX, failers 26%). What does: measure type. Tax Levies passed 54%. Income Taxes (EIT) failed 75% of the time. Bonds failed 80%. The cohort lost on what they asked for, not (only) on how they asked.
66
Issues on the May 5 ballot
24
Passed (36% pass rate)
42
Failed (64% fail rate)
5/11
FMX customers · passed vs failed
25%
EIT pass rate · vs 54% for Tax Levy
§1 · Pass rate by measure type
It mattered more what they asked for than how they asked.
Across all 66 ballot questions on May 5, the pass rate varied 3× by measure type. EIT and Bond Issues — the two formats most reliant on persuading voters of *new* facility or operational investment — collapsed. Tax Levy renewals (mostly continuing the existing rate) passed at 54%.
Tax Levy
15 of 28 (54%)
Income Tax
8 of 32 (25%)
Bond Issue
1 of 5 (20%)
Combination
0 of 1 (0%)
§2 · The comparator
Passers and failers, side by side.
Median values for each cohort. Δ = passer median − failer median. Counterintuitive findings stand out: passers had lower household income and home values than failers; same education levels; same poverty rate. They weren't wealthier or more educated. They spent slightly more per pupil on plant operations ($1,194 vs $1,046, +$147) but both cohorts still spent below the $1,324 national median.
| Median across cohort | Passers (n=24) | Failers (n=42) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plant ops $/pupil (median) | $1,194 | $1,046 | +$147 |
| Per-pupil total spend | $14,047 | $14,915 | −$868 |
| Per-pupil instruction | $8,148 | $7,916 | +$232 |
| SAIPE poverty | 12.0% | 12.4% | −0.5pp |
| ACS median household income | $63,754 | $68,646 | −$4,892 |
| ACS median home value | $156,200 | $178,150 | −$21,950 |
| ACS bachelors+ % | 23.9% | 24.0% | −0.1pp |
| ACS owner-occupied % | 77.9% | 76.1% | +1.8pp |
| Self-FMX customer rate | 20.8% | 26.2% | −5.4pp |
§3 · Where each district sits
All 66 districts vs the $1,324 plant-ops median.
Hollow circles passed. Filled circles failed (colored by tier). Star-outlined circles are FMX customers. Most districts in both cohorts spend below the national median on plant operations — under-investment in facilities is the Ohio baseline, not a discriminator. Click a failed dot to open its brief.
All 66 districts on the May 5 ballot — hollow circles passed, filled circles failed. Hover for details · click failed to open brief.
Passed (n=24)
Failed · Tier A
Failed · Tier B
Failed · Tier C
Failed · Tier D
★ FMX customer (anchor)
"Kettering City passed a $222M bond by 304 votes — the only capital ask of the May 5 cycle to succeed. Same county as Northridge Local, which lost a 4.4-mill PI levy by 94 votes."
— Two Montgomery County districts, same night, opposite outcomes
§4 · The 42 failed districts
Sortable outreach table.
Briefs (with FMX peer operational benchmarks) for each failed district. Tier A: razor margin, immediate retry. Tier B: existing FMX customer (expand/engage). Tier C: strong fit, named ops. Tier D: structural / community rejection / repeat-failer.
Tier:
FMX peers:
| District | Tier · Margin | Vote margin | Plant ops vs nat'l | FMX peers | Lead FMX peer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Painesville City Local Lake · enr 2,744 · Suburb-Large | Tier A | -10 (49.64% Yes) | +6.6% | — | none in top-15 |
| Chillicothe City Ross · enr 2,589 · Town-Distant | Tier A | -61 (49.17% Yes) | -2.2% | 2 | Logan-Hocking Local (OH, 35 mi) |
| Evergreen Local Fulton · enr 1,119 · Rural-Distant | Tier A | -72 (47.67% Yes) | +1.7% | 3 | Preble Shawnee Local (OH, 145mi) |
| Northridge Local Montgomery · enr 1,647 · Suburb-Large | Tier A | -94 (43.85% Yes) | -5.7% | 2 | New Haven Community Schools (MI) |
| Mount Vernon City ★ FMX Knox · enr 3,374 · Town-Distant | Tier A | -105 (49.06% Yes) | -26.4% | 3 | Cadillac Area Public Schools (MI) |
| Cardington-Lincoln Local Morrow · enr 920 · Rural-Distant | Tier A | -126 (45.26% Yes) | -1.1% | 2 | Centerburg Local (OH, 17 mi) |
| Paulding Exempted Village Paulding · enr 1,306 · Rural-Distant | Tier A | -131 (46.97% Yes) | -20.4% | 2 | Alexander Local (OH) |
| Northwestern Local Wayne · enr 1,681 · Rural-Fringe | Tier A | -151 (43.95% Yes) | -26.7% | — | (none in top-15) |
| Wynford Local Crawford · enr 1,079 · Rural-Fringe | Tier A | -159 (45.0% Yes) | -48.9% | 1 | Milton-Union Exempted Village (OH) |
| North College Hill City Hamilton · enr 1,428 · Suburb-Large | Tier A | -180 (43.37% Yes) | -39.0% | 3 | South Lake Schools (MI) |
| Strongsville City ★ FMX Cuyahoga · enr 5,757 · Suburb-Large | Tier B | -437 (48.0% Yes) | -2.1% | 3 | Sycamore Community City (OH, 93% similarity) |
| East Clinton Local ★ FMX Clinton · enr 1,179 · Rural-Distant | Tier B | -501 (33.57% Yes) | -26.8% | 3 | Alexander Local (OH) |
| Meigs Local ★ FMX Meigs · enr 1,586 · Rural-Fringe | Tier B | -598 (33.87% Yes) | +15.3% | 1 | Washington-Nile Local (OH) |
| Independence Local ★ FMX Cuyahoga · enr 1,044 · Suburb-Large | Tier B | -758 (37.58% Yes) | +28.8% | 3 | Ottawa Hills Local (OH, 106mi) |
| Springfield Local (Lucas) ★ FMX Lucas · enr 3,214 · Suburb-Large | Tier B | -911 (41.05% Yes) | -21.6% | 3 | Hamilton Local (OH, 127mi, 94% sim) + Northview Public Schools (MI, 94%) |
| Fairfield City ★ FMX Butler · enr 9,591 · Suburb-Large | Tier B | -1,047 (46.1% Yes) | -43.6% | 1 | Fairfield City SELF |
| New Richmond Exempted Village ★ FMX Clermont · enr 1,878 · Rural-Fringe | Tier B | -1,262 (28.55% Yes) | -0.3% | 2 | Lakewood Local (OH) |
| Pickerington Local ★ FMX Fairfield · enr 11,729 · Suburb-Large | Tier B | -3,379 (37.37% Yes) | -24.8% | 3 | Ankeny Community SD (IA, 92% similarity, 12,746 enr) |
| Troy City Miami · enr 3,929 · Town-Fringe | Tier C | -361 (46.63% Yes) | -37.9% | 3 | Waynesboro Area SD (PA) |
| Waverly City Pike · enr 1,607 · Rural-Fringe | Tier C | -452 (39.26% Yes) | -17.3% | 2 | Forest Hills SD (PA) |
| Ashtabula Area City Ashtabula · enr 2,635 · Town-Distant | Tier C | -497 (43.11% Yes) | +36.1% | 3 | Sparta Area SD (WI) |
| Tallmadge City Summit · enr 2,507 · Suburb-Large | Tier C | -540 (45.45% Yes) | -27.1% | 2 | Kenowa Hills Public Schools (MI) |
| Plain Local Stark · enr 5,874 · Suburb-Large | Tier C | -616 (47.1% Yes) | -30.7% | 3 | Haysville USD 261 (KS) |
| Norton City Summit · enr 2,185 · Suburb-Large | Tier C | -632 (40.88% Yes) | -41.2% | 1 | Walton-Verona Independent (KY) |
| Bath Local Allen · enr 1,588 · Suburb-Small | Tier C | -999 (26.18% Yes) | -11.2% | 1 | Essexville-Hampton Public Schools (MI) |
| Ontario Local Richland · enr 1,933 · Rural-Fringe | Tier C | -1,072 (30.86% Yes) | -34.8% | 1 | Pennfield Schools (MI) |
| Southwest Local Hamilton · enr 4,340 · Town-Fringe | Tier C | -1,072 (42.03% Yes) | -43.1% | 3 | Buffalo-Hanover-Montrose Schools (MN) |
| Barberton City Summit · enr 3,448 · Suburb-Large | Tier C | -1,140 (35.44% Yes) | +2.4% | 3 | Nordonia Hills City (OH, 21 mi) |
| Mentor Exempted Village Lake · enr 6,896 · Suburb-Large | Tier C | -1,226 (46.0% Yes) | -9.4% | 3 | Rockford Public Schools (MI) |
| Sylvania Schools Lucas · enr 7,700 · Suburb-Large | Tier C | -2,769 (39.67% Yes) | -1.0% | 3 | Grand Blanc Community Schools (MI) |
| Jefferson Township Local Montgomery · enr 277 · Suburb-Large | Tier D | -327 (33.8% Yes) | +74.2% | — | none |
| Amherst Exempted Village Lorain · enr 3,533 · Suburb-Midsize | Tier D | -568 (45.67% Yes) | -23.6% | 2 | Grand Haven Area Public Schools (MI) |
| Urbana City Champaign · enr 1,779 · Rural-Fringe | Tier D | -607 (37.35% Yes) | -36.2% | 1 | Liberty-Benton Local (OH) |
| Streetsboro City Portage · enr 1,905 · Suburb-Large | Tier D | -653 (42.29% Yes) | -14.2% | 3 | Ravenna City (OH, 7 mi) |
| Madison Local (Richland) Richland · enr 2,626 · Suburb-Small | Tier D | -756 (41.72% Yes) | -11.9% | — | (fresh peer pull needed against 3904945) |
| Clark-Shawnee Local Clark · enr 1,650 · Rural-Fringe | Tier D | -774 (37.99% Yes) | -15.9% | 3 | Lewisburg Area SD (PA) |
| New Philadelphia City Tuscarawas · enr 2,826 · Town-Distant | Tier D | -1,216 (38.72% Yes) | -24.8% | 1 | Sturgis Public Schools (MI) |
| Franklin City Warren · enr 2,602 · Suburb-Large | Tier D | -1,308 (34.87% Yes) | -19.6% | 2 | Washougal School District (WA) |
| Twinsburg City Summit · enr 3,854 · Suburb-Large | Tier D | -1,578 (37.27% Yes) | -33.8% | 3 | Cuyahoga Falls City SD (OH, 14 mi) |
| Lexington Local Richland · enr 2,210 · Suburb-Small | Tier D | -2,402 (26.57% Yes) | -40.6% | 3 | Granville Exempted Village (OH, 42mi) |
| Wadsworth City Medina · enr 4,275 · Suburb-Large | Tier D | -3,243 (30.38% Yes) | -17.8% | 3 | Anthony Wayne Local (OH) |
| Parma City Cuyahoga · enr 9,001 · Suburb-Large | Tier D | -3,746 (40.75% Yes) | -28.9% | 2 | Huntley Comm SD 158 (IL) |
§5 · The 24 districts that passed
For reference.
No briefs — these are the comparator cohort. Most are renewals of existing property-tax levies, where voters weren't being asked to approve *new* spending. The single bond that passed (Kettering, $222M) was won by 304 votes.
| District | Result | Measure | Vote margin | Plant ops vs nat'l |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minster Local Auglaize · enr 896 · Town-Distant | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +317 (73.3% Yes) | -21% |
| Solon City ★ FMX Cuyahoga · enr 4,594 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +2,109 (67.4% Yes) | +31% |
| Lakewood City Cuyahoga · enr 4,369 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +3,461 (66.2% Yes) | +38% |
| Struthers City Mahoning · enr 1,589 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +487 (63.9% Yes) | -12% |
| Parkway Local Mercer · enr 974 · Rural-Distant | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +123 (59.3% Yes) | -17% |
| Kent City Portage · enr 3,233 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +900 (58.4% Yes) | -6% |
| Canton Local Stark · enr 1,922 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +331 (57.0% Yes) | -29% |
| Avon Lake City Lorain · enr 3,435 · Suburb-Midsize | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +926 (57.0% Yes) | -8% |
| Boardman Local ★ FMX Mahoning · enr 3,515 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +1,026 (56.8% Yes) | -5% |
| Louisville City Stark · enr 2,768 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +577 (55.8% Yes) | -35% |
| Riverdale Local Hardin · enr 947 · Rural-Remote | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +79 (55.2% Yes) | -11% |
| Jonathan Alder Local ★ FMX Madison · enr 2,412 · Rural-Fringe | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +267 (54.3% Yes) | -13% |
| Otsego Local Wood · enr 1,637 · Rural-Fringe | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +163 (53.4% Yes) | -28% |
| Wickliffe City ★ FMX Lake · enr 1,228 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +132 (51.9% Yes) | -78% |
| Archbold-Area Local Fulton · enr 1,112 · Rural-Distant | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +54 (51.8% Yes) | -29% |
| Sebring Local Mahoning · enr 360 · Rural-Fringe | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +22 (51.6% Yes) | +61% |
| Jackson City ★ FMX Jackson · enr 2,236 · Town-Distant | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +100 (51.4% Yes) | +3% |
| Lorain City Lorain · enr 6,150 · Suburb-Midsize | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +158 (51.3% Yes) | +43% |
| Mt Healthy City Hamilton · enr 2,704 · Suburb-Large | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +94 (51.2% Yes) | -3% |
| Kettering City School District Montgomery · enr 7,635 · City-Small | ✓ Passed | Bond Issue | +304 (51.2% Yes) | -8% |
| River View Local Coshocton · enr 1,545 · Rural-Distant | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +39 (50.6% Yes) | -24% |
| Xenia Community City Greene · enr 3,611 · Town-Fringe | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +76 (50.6% Yes) | -44% |
| Union Local Belmont · enr 1,248 · Rural-Distant | ✓ Passed | Tax Levy | +27 (50.6% Yes) | -5% |
| Waynesfield-Goshen Local Auglaize · enr 465 · Rural-Distant | ✓ Passed | Income Tax | +5 (50.6% Yes) | +49% |